Welcome to Ungated

I have been away from the office for some time for chapter visits and our annual management company CEO retreat so haven't been posting here much.  But I am back now and hope to have some interesting things for you to consider in the near future.

And thanks to the more than 190 management company CEO's and senior executives who attended last weeks retreat in San Diego.  This was are best attended retreat ever!

 

Interesting article on the Atlantic's web site today regarding the apparent correlation between foreclosure frequency and levels of credit card debt in Florida and California.  Based on this Forbes article, 8 of the top 10 cities in terms of credit card debt are in Florida and California.

You might also want to look at this Wall Street Journal blog post which contains a chart of 2008 changes in GDP, employment, and home prices by state.  Guess which states led the nation in home price declines?  If you said CA and FL you would have gotten 2 of the top 3 (NV is the "winner" here).   Interestingly, according to this data, reductions in GDP, employment, and home prices do not necesssarily correlate.

Photos from the 2009 National Conference in New Orleans are available online.  There are photos from each of the general sessions, from the Friday night awards ceremony, and from various receptions, education sessions, and other functions throughout the week.

Enjoy,  Tom

The CEO-MC Retreat is a once a year, high-level event exclusively for community management company CEO's and their most senior staff.  This year we are returning to sunny southern California and the Hilton at Torrey Pines for the event on June 25 through 27.  Check out the CEO-MC Retreat page on the CAI website for more information on the agenda, speakers, and registration. 

The US Senate brought the Mortgage Cram-Down legislation to the floor this past week where it failed 45 - 51.  Democrats were unable to muster even a simple majority, much less the 60 votes required to avoid a filibuster.  I expect that we will see this bill continue to work its way through the legislative process and appear for a vote again.

On a very positive note, the Senate has heard our members concerns regarding how the bill could negatively affect community associations.  The Senate version of the bill, as amended by Senator Durbin, addressed a number of issues raised by CAI including clearly restricting judicial modification authority to mortgages and specifically excluding association liens and assessments from the modification process.  These changes were the result of our members making their voices heard through letters and calls from across the country. See the most recent "Heads-Up" for more information.  You can also review our letter to Senator Durbin outlining the concerns that he addressed in his amended bill.

 

Maybe you're among the 540+ members who have already registered for CAI's National Conference and Exposition, April 22-25 in New Orleans. If so, we look forward to seeing you there. If not, perhaps a few misperceptions are getting in your way. Learn more in our virtual brochure

Myth vs. Reality

Myth: It's too late to register.

Reality: It's not nearly too late-and we'll still give you the early-bird discount. Okay, you're not exactly an early bird, but who needs to know? Register today, you early bird.

Myth: In this economy, the cost of attending the National Conference is prohibitive.

Reality: You can't afford not to stay current in your profession, learn from industry experts and network with hundreds of your peers from across the country.  Check out the education schedule.

Myth: Flights are probably full and airfares are too high.

Reality: There are still plenty of seats available from your area, and airfares are much lower than you may think, thanks in large part to lower fuel costs. Get your airline tickets today.

Myth: New Orleans is still recovering from Hurricane Katrina.

Reality: Parts of the metropolitan area are still being rebuilt, but the French Quarter remains its old, thoroughly enjoyable self-and April 24-26 is the first weekend of the city's unrivaled Jazz and Heritage Festival (Jazz Fest). Order Jazz Fest tickets

Myth: I don't know many people who attend the National Conference.

Reality: Make your own reality! Get to know your industry peers, make professional contacts and perhaps make a few friends along the way. And you can always bring a friend or two. Either way, CAI members always make first-timers feel welcome. Check out who has already registered.

Okay, we've exposed the myths. Don't let this once-a-year opportunity pass you by!

A special thanks to all of our sponsors for making our annual national conference a success.

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Platinum Partner

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AXA Equitable

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Gold Partner

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Preferred Property Programs SmartStreet Yardi  

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Event Sponsors

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PCAM Reception:
212 Software 

Managers Reception:
Kevin Davis Insurance, Inc.  

Managers Exchange:
Alliance Association Financial Services

Welcome Reception:
AssociationVoiceJenark U.S. Lawns

Chapter Executive Director Scholarship &
Chapter Leadership Training Breakfast:
Union Bank

We have extended the Early Bird registration deadline for CAI's upcoming National Conference in New Orleans.  Register by March 30 and receive $50 off!  And don't forget, make sure you contact the Sheraton and book your room by the 30th as well. 

See you all in the Big Easy!

CAI's 2009 National Conference is fast approaching.  Scheduled for April 22 - 25 in New Orleans, LA, the conference promises to be a unique blend of outstanding education and networking, seasoned with that unique spice that is New Orleans.

This year we are continuing our efforts to reduce CAI's environmental impact through the use of a "virtual conference brochure".  Rather than print and mail a large document that requires tons of paper, ink, and foreign oil to produce, we are making the same (and even more) information available electronically.

Please take a look and feel free to forward the link to all your friends in the industry.

And don't forget the Early Bird registration deadline is fast approaching.  Send in your application by March 24th and save $50.

 

In an extremely unprecedented move, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a prime time interview yesterday to 60 Minutes correspondent Steve Pelley.  In the course of the interview he discussed the current recession, what went wrong with our financial system, and lessons to be learned from the Great Depression.  This is the first time that a sitting Fed Chair has agreed to such a public discussion of the economy and monetary policy. 

Definitely worth the time to see/read.  Interestingly, he pretty clearly predicts that the recession will ease by the end of this year and the economy will return to modest growth in 2010.  Good news if it proves true.

The debate on mortgage modification, aka “Cram Down” has now moved to the Senate where sponsors are lobbying for the 60 votes needed for passage. If passed the mortgage modification bill would create a process that would be an alternative to foreclosures and the current bankruptcy process. Considering the ongoing issues in the housing market, such a process may work to help stabilize housing prices and to keep more people in their homes which is certainly a laudable goal.

 

CAI’s ongoing concern, and one that we are watching very carefully, is that this new process does not have any of the protections for associations that exist, even in a limited way, under current foreclosure or bankruptcy laws and processes. We will continue to reach out to the Senate sponsors to gain support to amend the proposal to protect community associations ability to collect their assessments.  While we all, understandably, want to strengthen the overall market, it would only exacerbate the housing crisis to have increased costs put onto responsible homeowners through higher assessments.  

 

We will be sure to keep all of our members posted as this process moves forward.

As many of my friends know I have been an unabashed fan of Warren Buffett and his approach to business and investing since business school days.  I consider Buffett's letters to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway as required reading for anyone trying to understand our economy and the market.

Earlier this week, Buffett gave an extended interview to CNBC on the state of the economy, including taking a number of questions from viewers.  The CNBC website has both a transcript and video clips (In 7 parts).  A couple of the key quotes regarding the current banking crisis that leaped out to me included:

> "No depositor of an insured deposit has ever lost a penny since 1934....Thirty-six hundred times (since 1934) the FDIC has come in....It hasn't cost the taxpayer one dime, no depositor has lost one dime."

> "...we have a system in place that can take care of the banks, and most of the banks are in pretty good shape."

> "...the Fed of New York, for example, had 9 billion of deposits from banks throughout the country a year ago. Now they have 450 billion....That is a huge change in behavior by banks."

One final Buffet thought for today from a NYTimes OpEd last October:

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.  Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month--or a year--from now.  What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.  -- Warren Buffett Op-Ed Oct. 17, 2008

"National housing price declines and foreclosures have not been as severe as some analyses have indicated, and they are not as important as financial manipulations in bringing on the global recession, according to a new analysis of foreclosures in 50 states, 35 metropolitan areas and 236 counties by University of Virginia professor William Lucy and graduate student Jeff Herlitz."

...they claim that "66 percent of potential housing value losses in 2008 and subsequent years may be in California, with another 21 percent in Florida, Nevada and Arizona, for a total of 87 percent of national declines."

Report

NYTimes Blog Commentary

We all know intuitively that there are dramatic local and regional differences in foreclosure rates and home price declines, but it is startling to see 4 states make up 87 percent of the problem.  Perhaps more important though is the observation that there was no "reverse gear" to extract non-performing mortgages from packaged mortgage securities and fairly revalue the remainder.  As a result, a (relatively) small excursion in home values and default rates has resulted in a tsunami through the financial markets.

After passage of the stimulus bill, Congress and the President have now turned their attention to addressing the ongoing housing crisis. In fact, shortly after he signed the $787 billion stimulus bill into law, the President announced his three-point plan to stabilize the housing market called the Homeowner Affordability & Stability Plan.

The plan as announced has three broad goals. First is to provide refinancing for homeowners who are current in their mortgages, but whose loan to home value ratio may preclude them from qualifying for refinancing. Second, and potentially more problematic, is the plan to address those homeowners who are upside-down in their mortgages. That is that they currently owe more than the market value of their home. And finally, efforts by the government to shore up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help ensure lower mortgage rates.

While many parts of the proposed plan attempt to help the most and harm the least, one pending concept—judicial mortgage modification—holds the potential to drive up assessments and needlessly hurt responsible homeowners in community associations across the country.  Under the proposal currently before the House of Representatives, a homeowner whose home value is less than their outstanding mortgage (so called ‘upside down’ mortgages), could petition a federal bankruptcy court to ‘modify’ their mortgage. The bankruptcy court could rewrite this person’s mortgage and lower their payments and even reduce the principle balance to more ‘affordable’ levels. In other words, the court could ‘cram down’ both the homeowner’s monthly paymentsand the overall principle balance on their mortgage.  Proponents argue that this approach is the best way to address the unprecedented decline in housing prices and keep as many people in their homes as possible. Critics contend that allowing the courts to rewrite private contractual agreements will increase interest rates for all homeowners and reward irresponsible homebuyers who relied on exotic mortgages to gamble on rising housing prices.

For community associations there is an added element of urgency to this proposal. As written, the mortgage cram down legislation could allow the courts to bypass state laws related to assessment liens, priority liens or other tools associations use to collect past due assessments. Because bankruptcy law is a complex mix of federal  and widely differing state statutes, the actual impact could vary from state to state, but generally there is a concern that as written, the Cram Down legislation could allow bankruptcy courts to discharge past due assessments regardless of any lien or priority lien levied by the association. This would result in irresponsible homeowners getting a free pass on their past due assessments, raising the burden for everyone else or resulting in cuts to community maintenance and reserves. In addition, the possibility exists that judges could arbitrarily lower future assessment payment obligations for such homeowners.  As a result, CAI feels that this proposal will have the perverse impact of hurting home values in community associations by leaving gaping holes in associations’ budgets.  Holes that will have to be filled by the the rest of the communities residents, putting further pressure on them and causing additional homeowners to fall behind on their mortgage, assessment, and other payments.  Clearly an outcome that no one desires.

The current federal bankruptcy code under Chapter 11, section 523(a)(16) recognizes the unique nature of community associations and provides that a homeowners assessments to their community associations cannot be discharged in a chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding.  If Congress’s goal for the so-called “Cram Down” legislation is to reduce the mortgage payments on upside down mortgages to manageable levels, without harming responsible homeowners, then they must revisit the legislation and expressly limit the authority granted to bankruptcy courts solely to addressing the principle balance of the primary mortgage, while preserving the ability of associations to collect past due assessments on such property. Failure to do so could:

·         Impact an association’s ability to recover delinquent homeowners’ assessments and potentially affect future assessment obligations to the community.

·         Bypass state statutes that provide a priority lien or assessment lien for past due association assessments.

·         Cause additional strain on the housing market by forcing non-foreclosed homeowners to pay higher fees to cover mandatory operating expenses, pushing more homeowners into financial distress.

·         Cut funds available to maintain common areas of the community, resulting in a spiral of deteriorating infrastructure, lower property values and ultimately, higher financial burdens on state and local governments.

·         Undermine, if not unravel, the benefits of common ownership communities by exempting some homeowners from the obligation to pay their fair share to support common elements of the community.

CAI has taken our concerns to the leaders of the House of Representatives, and we will soon be asking you to make your voice heard as this issue moves through the legislative process. Each year, community associations save taxpayers close to $80 billion, by assessing themselves for the provision of services and amenities in their communities. Any approach to helping distressed homeowners must take into consideration the impact to the 1 in 5 homeowners who live in community associations and assure that the limited means available to associations to collect past due assessments are not thrown aside to the detriment of the vast majority of responsible homeowners in associations across the country.

 

 

Forget Nostradamus, this 15+ year old Calvin and Hobbs cartoon accurately predicted the US and world economy this past year.  Who knew??:

April is just around the corner and CAI will once again be visiting New Orleans for our National Conference, continuing our tradition of great cities, great education, and great networking.  The hotel room block is filling fast, so make sure that you get your reservations at the Sheraton before all the rooms are gone.  Don't forget that the deadline for Early Bird Registration is March 24th.  Get your conference registration to us by then and save $50.

And for those of you who want to add another great experience to your trip,  New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival (Jazzfest) kicks off its opening weekend Saturday and Sunday right after conference ends.  Celebrating 40 years of peace, love, and crawfish, over 200 performers are scheduled to appear.  In these challenging economic times we all need a little music to feed our souls and great food to feed our bodies.  Check it out.

In just a few short weeks in session, the new Congress has moved quickly to pass an unprecedented economic stimulus plan designed to help shore up the sagging economy. Known as the American Economic Recovery and Reinvestment Act, the 1,200+ page bill provides for more than $787 billion on a variety of tax cuts and spending programs as the country faces the toughest recession since the Great Depression.  Both the size and the scope of the legislation are stunning, and there will be more information rolling out on provisions in the bill beneficial to CAI members in the weeks and months ahead.

In our first review of the legislation, we’ve identified several provisions that may be of interest to CAI members.

HOMEOWNER TAX BREAKS

$8,000 first time homebuyer tax credit for homes purchased in 2009.Under the stimulus bill a first time homebuyer will be entitled to an $8,000 tax credit for a home purchase in 2009. This is an increase of $500 from the $7,500 tax credit passed by Congress in 2008. Unlike the 2008 credit, the $8,000 credit does not have to be paid back by the homeowner. The tax credit phases out for taxpayers with an adjusted gross income of $75,000 (single filer) or $150,000 (joint filers).

This is less than the tax credits that CAI and the Fix Housing First Coalition were supporting for all home purchases, but it is a step up from the current $7,500 tax credit that a homeowner must repay.  

$400 tax credit for Singles, $800 for Couples. The act also provides for a refundable tax credit of up to $400 for single filers and $800 for families. The rebate would be calculated at 6.2% of earned income and phases out at incomes of $75,000 for single filers and $150,000 for joint filers.

Unlike the rebate checks in recent years, those qualifying for the tax credit need to make affirmative adjustments to their income withholdings to get the money added to their paychecks or wait to get the full benefit up completion of the their 2009 tax returns.

Sales Tax Deduction for New Car Purchases.  Taxpayers with an adjusted gross income of less than $125,000 for single filers and $250,000 for joint returns can take a tax deduction for any state, local and excise taxes on a new automobile purchase made in 2009.

Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency Improvements.  Taxpayers will be allowed to take a tax credit of up to 10% of the cost for qualified energy efficiency improvements undertaking in the current taxable year.

Extension of Alternative Minimum Tax Relief. The stimulus bill extends relief for taxpayers who might fall under the Alternative Minimum Tax by increasing the ATM exemption to $46,700 for single filers and $70,950 for joint filers.

BUSINESS TAX BREAKS

Extension of Bonus Depreciation. Extends the ability of a business to take an immediate 50% write off for the cost of depreciable property acquired in 2009 by extending provisions from 2008 allowing for accelerated depreciation.

Extension of Small Business Expensing. Extends until 2010, provisions that allow a small business to write off capital expenditures of up to $250,000 for expenses incurred in 2009 with an income phase out of $800,000.

5 Year Carry-Back on Net Operating Losses. Allows small businesses, with gross receipts of $15 million or less, to carry back losses from the current 2 to 5 years before the loss arose.

Incentives to Hire Unemployed Veterans and Disconnected Youth. Employers who hire unemployed veterans or disconnected youth can qualify for a tax credit that equals up to 40% of the first $6,000 ($2,400) of wages for the hired employee. An individual would qualify as an unemployed veteran if they were discharged or released from active duty from the Armed Forces during the five year period prior to hiring and received unemployment compensation for more than four weeks during the year before being hired. An individual qualifies as a disconnected youth if they are between 16 and 25 and have not been regularly employed or attended school in the past 6 months.

The debate on whether or not these tax and spending incentives will be enough to turn the economy around begins now. In the coming weeks, we will be reporting on developments in many of the areas discussed above and other provisions that may be of benefit to you as a CAI member.